Economic Growth
Economic Growth, the process by which a nation’s wealth increases over time. Although the term is often used in discussions of short-term economic performance, in the context of economic theory it generally refers to an increase in wealth over an extended period.
Growth can best be described as a process of transformation. Whether one examines an economy that is already modern and industrialized or an economy at an earlier stage of development, one finds that the process of growth is uneven and unbalanced. Economic historians have attempted to develop a theory of stages through which each economy must pass as it grows. Early writers, given to metaphor, often stressed the resemblance between the evolutionary character of economic development and human life—e.g., growth, maturity, and decadence. Later writers, such as the Australian economist Colin Clark, have stressed the dominance of different sectors of an economy at different stages of its development and modernization. For Clark, development is a process of successive domination by primary (agriculture), secondary (manufacturing), and tertiary (trade and service) production. For the American economist W.W. Rostow, growth proceeds from a traditional society to a transitional one (in which the foundations for growth are developed), to the “take-off” society (in which development accelerates), to the mature society. Various theories have been advanced to explain the movement from one stage to the next. Entrepreneurship and investment are the two factors most often singled out as critical.
Economic growth is usually distinguished from economic development, the latter term being restricted to economies that are close to the subsistence level. The term economic growth is applied to economies already experiencing rising per capita incomes. In Rostow’s phraseology economic growth begins somewhere between the stage of take-off and the stage of maturity; or in Clark’s terms, between the stage dominated by primary and the stage dominated by secondary production. The most striking aspect in such development is generally the enormous decrease in the proportion of the labour force employed in agriculture. There are other aspects of growth. The decline in agriculture and the rise of industry and services has led to concentration of the population in cities, first in what has come to be described as the “core city” and later in the suburbs. In earlier years public utility investment (including investment in transportation) was more important than manufacturing investment, but in the course of growth this relationship was reversed. There has also been a rise in the importance of durable consumer goods in total output. In the U.S. experience, the rate of growth of capital goods production at first exceeded the rate of growth of total output, but later this too was reversed. Likewise, business construction or plant expenditures loomed large in the earlier period as an object of business investment compared to the recent era. Whether other countries will go through the same experience at similar stages in their growth remains to be seen.
Comparative growth rates for a group of developed countries show how uneven the process of growth can be. Partly this unevenness reflects the extraordinary nature of the 1913–50 period, which included two major wars and a severe and prolonged depression. There are sizable differences, however, in the growth rates of the various countries as between the 1870–1913 and 1950–73 periods and the period since 1973. For the most part, these differences indicate an acceleration in rates of growth from the first to the second period and a marked slowdown in growth rates from the second to the current period. Many writers have attributed this to the more rapid growth of business investment during the middle of the three periods.
The relatively high rates of growth for West Germany, Japan, and Italy in the post-World War II period have stimulated a good deal of discussion. It is often argued that “late starters” can grow faster because they can borrow advanced technology from the early starters. In this way they leapfrog some of the stages of development that the early starters were forced to move through. This argument is nothing more than the assertion that late starters will grow rapidly during the period when they are modernizing. Italy did not succeed in growing rapidly and thereby modernizing until after World War II. Together with Japan and Germany it also experienced a large amount of war damage. This has an effect similar to starting late, since recovery from war entails building a stock of capital that will, other things being equal, embody the most advanced technology and therefore be more productive and allow faster growth. The other part of this argument is the assertion that early starters are actually deterred from introducing on a broad front the new technology they themselves have developed. For example, firms in a country that industrialized early may be inhibited from introducing a more modern and efficient means of transportation on a broad scale because there is no guarantee that other firms handling the ancillary loading and unloading tasks will also modernize to make the change profitable.
Related to this is the problem of whether or not per capita income levels and their rates of growth in developed economies will eventually converge or diverge. For example, as per capita incomes of fast growers like the Italians and Japanese approach those of economies that developed earlier, such as the American and British, will the growth rates of the former slow down? Economists who answer in the affirmative stress the similarities in the changing patterns of demand as per capita income rises. This emphasis in turn implies that there is less and less chance to borrow technology from the industrial leaders as the income levels of the late starters approach those of the more affluent. Moreover, rising per capita incomes in an affluent society usually are accompanied by a shift in demand toward services. Therefore, so this argument goes, differences in income levels and growth rates between countries should eventually narrow because of the low growth in productivity in the service sector. The evidence is inconclusive. On the one hand, growth is a function of something more than the ability to borrow the latest technology; on the other hand, it is not clear that productivity must always grow at a slower rate in the service industries.
A rapidly increasing population is not clearly either an advantage or a disadvantage to economic growth. The American Simon Kuznets and other investigators have found little association between rates of population growth and rates of growth of GNP per capita. Some of the fastest growing economies have been those with stable populations. And in the United States, where the rate of growth of population has shown a downward historical trend, the rate of growth of GNP per capita has increased over the last century and a half. Another finding by Kuznets is that while GNP per capita in 1960 was substantially higher in the United States than in any European country, there was no significant difference in the per capita growth rates of all these countries over the period 1840 to 1960 as a whole. The conclusion is that the United States started from a higher per capita base; this may have been the result of its superior natural resources, especially its fertile agricultural land.
The analysis of growth
To explain why some countries grow more rapidly than others or why a country may grow more rapidly during one period of history than another, economists have found it convenient to think in terms of a “production function.” This is a mathematical way of relating some measure of output, such as GNP, to the inputs required to produce it. For example, it is possible to relate GNP to the size of the labour force measured in man-hours, to capital stock measured in dollars, and to various other inputs that are considered important. An equation can be written that states that the rate of growth of GNP depends upon the rates of growth of the labour force, the capital stock, and other variables. A common procedure is to assume that the influence of the separate inputs is additive—i.e., that the increase in the growth of output caused by increasing the rate of growth of, say, capital is independent of the rate of growth of the labour force. This is the starting point of a great deal of current empirical work that attempts to quantify the importance of different inputs.
Under certain assumptions, some reasonable and some patently false, it is possible to conclude that what labour and capital receive in the form of wages, profits, and interest is a fair measure of what they contribute to the productive process. Thus in the United States in the period following World War II the share of output going to labour was approximately 79 percent, while the share of output distributed as “profits” was 21 percent. If we assume that these proportions determine how much we should weight the rate of growth of the labour force and of capital respectively in determining their contribution to the rate of growth of output, we must conclude that the relative contribution of capital is slight. Alternatively, we may say that some given percentage increase in the rate of growth of the labour force will have a much larger influence on the rate of growth of output than the same percentage increase in the rate of growth of capital. This is a puzzling result and can be traced to the assumption that the influence of separate inputs is additive.
Quality improvements in the inputs
Much work has been done in an effort to measure the inputs in the productive process more accurately by taking account of improvements in the quality of both labour and capital over time. For example, it has been argued that the amount of a worker’s time spent on his formal education is positively related to the income he receives and to his productive contribution. Measuring the number of man-hours worked from one period to the next will not give a true picture of the increase in labour input if the average amount of education received by workers is changing. Man-hour units must be converted to “efficiency” units. Thus if a labour force of 100 workers in the first year all had an eighth-grade education, while 20 years later each member had a 10th-grade education, then measured in efficiency units the labour force had grown. If the length of time spent on formal education increases over time, then the growth of the labour input will be larger if measured in efficiency units. There is, thus, an element of capital in the labour force.
Examples of investment in human capital are expenditures on health and on all types of education, including on-the-job training. Expenditures of this sort increase the quality of the labour force and its ability to perform productive tasks. Many economists have argued that technological progress is really nothing but quality improvements in human beings. Some economists take an even broader view and speak of the “production of knowledge” as the clue to technological progress. The production of knowledge is a broad category including outlays on all forms of education, on basic research, and on the more applied type of research associated especially with industry. It is argued that fast-growing industries tend to be those having a high research and development component in their total costs. In addition, firms within an industry that have large research and development budgets tend to experience the most rapid technological progress. The argument is that technical change and improvements must originate in inventions that lead to innovations in the products produced or in the processes whereby existing products are manufactured.
A similar argument applies to the size of the capital stock. It can be maintained that design improvements increase the efficiency of capital goods so that a dollar’s worth of machinery purchased today may be much more efficient than a dollar’s worth of depreciated machinery purchased yesterday. The rate of growth of the capital stock measured so as to take account of quality improvements will be greater than the rate of growth of the capital stock measured in a way that neglects the differences between “vintages.”
Some economists have stressed “economies of scale.” For example, if an increase in the use of capital and labour leads to a greater than proportionate increase in output, this is said to result from economies of scale. Economies of scale may arise because an expansion of the market justifies a radical change in productive techniques. These new techniques may be so much more efficient that the returns in the way of increased output are much greater proportionately than the increase in inputs.
Another source of growth and of technical progress in particular has been seen in shifts of demand from low productivity sectors to high productivity sectors, thus causing resources to be reallocated. The most notable movement has been the shift of resources, especially labour, out of agriculture—a traditionally low-productivity sector. Such shifts act to increase the rate of growth of output in ways that cannot be accounted for by simply measuring growth in total inputs. Historically, the allocation of both capital and labour have shifted during the growth process from low productivity sectors to high ones, causing the rate of growth of output to exceed the weighted average of the rates of growth of total inputs.
Entrepreneurship
This historical fact points to an element that has received little attention so far: the influence of entrepreneurship. If the allocation of resources changes during the course of growth and development, it does so under the leadership of an entrepreneurial class. The quality of entrepreneurship is seen by many economists as an important explanation of differences in the rate of technical progress between countries. Decisions must be made somewhere along the line as to whether a new product or process will be introduced. It has been argued that two countries undertaking similar amounts of investment leading to more or less identical rates of growth in the capital stock will not necessarily show the same rate of technical progress. In one country entrepreneurs may be undertaking enterprise investment that has as its aim the introduction of the most advanced types of production techniques, those that will lead to a rapid growth of labour productivity. In the other, because of hesitation or ignorance, the investment program may lead only to marginal changes in productive processes; the resulting growth in labour productivity and GNP will be small. For example, much has been said since World War II about the more aggressive nature of German businessmen as compared to their English counterparts. The emphasis on the role of the entrepreneur in economic growth stems from the theoretical work of the economist Joseph A. Schumpeter, but many others have echoed it.
Growth can best be described as a process of transformation. Whether one examines an economy that is already modern and industrialized or an economy at an earlier stage of development, one finds that the process of growth is uneven and unbalanced. Economic historians have attempted to develop a theory of stages through which each economy must pass as it grows. Early writers, given to metaphor, often stressed the resemblance between the evolutionary character of economic development and human life—e.g., growth, maturity, and decadence. Later writers, such as the Australian economist Colin Clark, have stressed the dominance of different sectors of an economy at different stages of its development and modernization. For Clark, development is a process of successive domination by primary (agriculture), secondary (manufacturing), and tertiary (trade and service) production. For the American economist W.W. Rostow, growth proceeds from a traditional society to a transitional one (in which the foundations for growth are developed), to the “take-off” society (in which development accelerates), to the mature society. Various theories have been advanced to explain the movement from one stage to the next. Entrepreneurship and investment are the two factors most often singled out as critical.
Economic growth is usually distinguished from economic development, the latter term being restricted to economies that are close to the subsistence level. The term economic growth is applied to economies already experiencing rising per capita incomes. In Rostow’s phraseology economic growth begins somewhere between the stage of take-off and the stage of maturity; or in Clark’s terms, between the stage dominated by primary and the stage dominated by secondary production. The most striking aspect in such development is generally the enormous decrease in the proportion of the labour force employed in agriculture. There are other aspects of growth. The decline in agriculture and the rise of industry and services has led to concentration of the population in cities, first in what has come to be described as the “core city” and later in the suburbs. In earlier years public utility investment (including investment in transportation) was more important than manufacturing investment, but in the course of growth this relationship was reversed. There has also been a rise in the importance of durable consumer goods in total output. In the U.S. experience, the rate of growth of capital goods production at first exceeded the rate of growth of total output, but later this too was reversed. Likewise, business construction or plant expenditures loomed large in the earlier period as an object of business investment compared to the recent era. Whether other countries will go through the same experience at similar stages in their growth remains to be seen.
Comparative growth rates for a group of developed countries show how uneven the process of growth can be. Partly this unevenness reflects the extraordinary nature of the 1913–50 period, which included two major wars and a severe and prolonged depression. There are sizable differences, however, in the growth rates of the various countries as between the 1870–1913 and 1950–73 periods and the period since 1973. For the most part, these differences indicate an acceleration in rates of growth from the first to the second period and a marked slowdown in growth rates from the second to the current period. Many writers have attributed this to the more rapid growth of business investment during the middle of the three periods.
The relatively high rates of growth for West Germany, Japan, and Italy in the post-World War II period have stimulated a good deal of discussion. It is often argued that “late starters” can grow faster because they can borrow advanced technology from the early starters. In this way they leapfrog some of the stages of development that the early starters were forced to move through. This argument is nothing more than the assertion that late starters will grow rapidly during the period when they are modernizing. Italy did not succeed in growing rapidly and thereby modernizing until after World War II. Together with Japan and Germany it also experienced a large amount of war damage. This has an effect similar to starting late, since recovery from war entails building a stock of capital that will, other things being equal, embody the most advanced technology and therefore be more productive and allow faster growth. The other part of this argument is the assertion that early starters are actually deterred from introducing on a broad front the new technology they themselves have developed. For example, firms in a country that industrialized early may be inhibited from introducing a more modern and efficient means of transportation on a broad scale because there is no guarantee that other firms handling the ancillary loading and unloading tasks will also modernize to make the change profitable.
Related to this is the problem of whether or not per capita income levels and their rates of growth in developed economies will eventually converge or diverge. For example, as per capita incomes of fast growers like the Italians and Japanese approach those of economies that developed earlier, such as the American and British, will the growth rates of the former slow down? Economists who answer in the affirmative stress the similarities in the changing patterns of demand as per capita income rises. This emphasis in turn implies that there is less and less chance to borrow technology from the industrial leaders as the income levels of the late starters approach those of the more affluent. Moreover, rising per capita incomes in an affluent society usually are accompanied by a shift in demand toward services. Therefore, so this argument goes, differences in income levels and growth rates between countries should eventually narrow because of the low growth in productivity in the service sector. The evidence is inconclusive. On the one hand, growth is a function of something more than the ability to borrow the latest technology; on the other hand, it is not clear that productivity must always grow at a slower rate in the service industries.
A rapidly increasing population is not clearly either an advantage or a disadvantage to economic growth. The American Simon Kuznets and other investigators have found little association between rates of population growth and rates of growth of GNP per capita. Some of the fastest growing economies have been those with stable populations. And in the United States, where the rate of growth of population has shown a downward historical trend, the rate of growth of GNP per capita has increased over the last century and a half. Another finding by Kuznets is that while GNP per capita in 1960 was substantially higher in the United States than in any European country, there was no significant difference in the per capita growth rates of all these countries over the period 1840 to 1960 as a whole. The conclusion is that the United States started from a higher per capita base; this may have been the result of its superior natural resources, especially its fertile agricultural land.
The analysis of growth
To explain why some countries grow more rapidly than others or why a country may grow more rapidly during one period of history than another, economists have found it convenient to think in terms of a “production function.” This is a mathematical way of relating some measure of output, such as GNP, to the inputs required to produce it. For example, it is possible to relate GNP to the size of the labour force measured in man-hours, to capital stock measured in dollars, and to various other inputs that are considered important. An equation can be written that states that the rate of growth of GNP depends upon the rates of growth of the labour force, the capital stock, and other variables. A common procedure is to assume that the influence of the separate inputs is additive—i.e., that the increase in the growth of output caused by increasing the rate of growth of, say, capital is independent of the rate of growth of the labour force. This is the starting point of a great deal of current empirical work that attempts to quantify the importance of different inputs.
Under certain assumptions, some reasonable and some patently false, it is possible to conclude that what labour and capital receive in the form of wages, profits, and interest is a fair measure of what they contribute to the productive process. Thus in the United States in the period following World War II the share of output going to labour was approximately 79 percent, while the share of output distributed as “profits” was 21 percent. If we assume that these proportions determine how much we should weight the rate of growth of the labour force and of capital respectively in determining their contribution to the rate of growth of output, we must conclude that the relative contribution of capital is slight. Alternatively, we may say that some given percentage increase in the rate of growth of the labour force will have a much larger influence on the rate of growth of output than the same percentage increase in the rate of growth of capital. This is a puzzling result and can be traced to the assumption that the influence of separate inputs is additive.
Quality improvements in the inputs
Much work has been done in an effort to measure the inputs in the productive process more accurately by taking account of improvements in the quality of both labour and capital over time. For example, it has been argued that the amount of a worker’s time spent on his formal education is positively related to the income he receives and to his productive contribution. Measuring the number of man-hours worked from one period to the next will not give a true picture of the increase in labour input if the average amount of education received by workers is changing. Man-hour units must be converted to “efficiency” units. Thus if a labour force of 100 workers in the first year all had an eighth-grade education, while 20 years later each member had a 10th-grade education, then measured in efficiency units the labour force had grown. If the length of time spent on formal education increases over time, then the growth of the labour input will be larger if measured in efficiency units. There is, thus, an element of capital in the labour force.
Examples of investment in human capital are expenditures on health and on all types of education, including on-the-job training. Expenditures of this sort increase the quality of the labour force and its ability to perform productive tasks. Many economists have argued that technological progress is really nothing but quality improvements in human beings. Some economists take an even broader view and speak of the “production of knowledge” as the clue to technological progress. The production of knowledge is a broad category including outlays on all forms of education, on basic research, and on the more applied type of research associated especially with industry. It is argued that fast-growing industries tend to be those having a high research and development component in their total costs. In addition, firms within an industry that have large research and development budgets tend to experience the most rapid technological progress. The argument is that technical change and improvements must originate in inventions that lead to innovations in the products produced or in the processes whereby existing products are manufactured.
A similar argument applies to the size of the capital stock. It can be maintained that design improvements increase the efficiency of capital goods so that a dollar’s worth of machinery purchased today may be much more efficient than a dollar’s worth of depreciated machinery purchased yesterday. The rate of growth of the capital stock measured so as to take account of quality improvements will be greater than the rate of growth of the capital stock measured in a way that neglects the differences between “vintages.”
Some economists have stressed “economies of scale.” For example, if an increase in the use of capital and labour leads to a greater than proportionate increase in output, this is said to result from economies of scale. Economies of scale may arise because an expansion of the market justifies a radical change in productive techniques. These new techniques may be so much more efficient that the returns in the way of increased output are much greater proportionately than the increase in inputs.
Another source of growth and of technical progress in particular has been seen in shifts of demand from low productivity sectors to high productivity sectors, thus causing resources to be reallocated. The most notable movement has been the shift of resources, especially labour, out of agriculture—a traditionally low-productivity sector. Such shifts act to increase the rate of growth of output in ways that cannot be accounted for by simply measuring growth in total inputs. Historically, the allocation of both capital and labour have shifted during the growth process from low productivity sectors to high ones, causing the rate of growth of output to exceed the weighted average of the rates of growth of total inputs.
Entrepreneurship
This historical fact points to an element that has received little attention so far: the influence of entrepreneurship. If the allocation of resources changes during the course of growth and development, it does so under the leadership of an entrepreneurial class. The quality of entrepreneurship is seen by many economists as an important explanation of differences in the rate of technical progress between countries. Decisions must be made somewhere along the line as to whether a new product or process will be introduced. It has been argued that two countries undertaking similar amounts of investment leading to more or less identical rates of growth in the capital stock will not necessarily show the same rate of technical progress. In one country entrepreneurs may be undertaking enterprise investment that has as its aim the introduction of the most advanced types of production techniques, those that will lead to a rapid growth of labour productivity. In the other, because of hesitation or ignorance, the investment program may lead only to marginal changes in productive processes; the resulting growth in labour productivity and GNP will be small. For example, much has been said since World War II about the more aggressive nature of German businessmen as compared to their English counterparts. The emphasis on the role of the entrepreneur in economic growth stems from the theoretical work of the economist Joseph A. Schumpeter, but many others have echoed it.
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